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If Giddey can improve his shooting after making just 29% of his 3-pointers and 69% of his free throws last season, he's likely to be a valuable NBA contributor. The versatile Giddey led the NBL in his native Australia with 7.5 APG last season, ahead of former NBA players Scott Machado and Bryce Cotton, while also averaging 7.4 RPG.
Nonetheless, Mobley looks like the rare big man who justifies a top-five pick because of his versatility and dominant paint defense.
The higher replacement level for post players is one reason Mobley's stats-only rating is more modest. Green just misses the stats-only top 10.Īmong the top four prospects, Mobley was the most productive last season, though that's to be expected for a big man. He rated as an above-average player in the G League thanks to efficient scoring (.592 true shooting) while using 23% of Ignite's plays. Still, the strong predictive value of being the top-rated player puts him atop the group of players likely to be drafted with the first four picks.įor a teenager competing against players shuttling back and forth from the NBA, Green held his own as part of G League Ignite, an encouraging sign for his long-term prospects. 1 picks along with Edwards and Andrew Wiggins. His stats-only projection is on the low end for recent No. Cunningham had a relatively high turnover rate and shot just 46% inside the arc. Still, there's little precedent for anyone as productive as Sengun truly failing as a pro.Ĭunningham's statistics during his one season at Oklahoma State aren't quite as effusive as scouts are about his potential. Sengun's stats-only projection is in the same ballpark as DeJuan Blair and Kenneth Faried, who enjoyed solid careers as role players but were never NBA stars. It's understandable that scouts question whether that production will entirely translate. He was chosen as MVP, producing the third-best stats-only projection in my database behind Luka Doncic and Anthony Davis. At age 18 (he turned 19 on Sunday), Sengun led the league with 8.9 WARP, nearly 3.5 more than any other player. This year's top-rated prospect won't surprise anyone who's followed Sengun's domination of the Basketball Super League in his native Turkey. Otherwise, let's break down this year's top 30 and a couple of notable omissions. For more on how my projections work and past examples, see here.
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Still, this looks like a solid lottery with four players who rank in the top 10 of my stats-only projections and in our top 10 - typically a recipe for a strong career - plus a handful of others who narrowly miss out in one category or the other. By those measures, there's no prospect in this year's draft who rates as strong combined as LaMelo Ball did last season and Rookie of the Year runners-up Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton also rated ahead of this year's highly touted top four prospects.
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Not by my projections, which combine statistical projections based on player performance in college or other professional leagues with how players rank in our top 100 prospects.
ET on ESPN and ABC) grade out as well statistically as in the evaluation of league scouts? NBA draft 2021: Ranking the top 30 prospects based on stats and scoutingĭoes Thursday's NBA draft (8 p.m.
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